WEBINAR SERIES: Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation

PART 5: The Value of Long-term Streamflow Forecasts in Adaptive Reservoir Operation: The case of High Aswan Dam in the Transboundary Nile River Basin

May 19, 2021 | 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM PT

Description

The fifth and last in the Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) webinars, this webinar will focus on transboundary river basins that are experiencing extensive dam development that imposes challenges to future water management, especially for downstream nations. A timely case is the upstream development in the Nile River Basin where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is being constructed. Therefore, adapting the operation of existing reservoirs to such challenges is indispensable to cope with potential alterations in flow regime along with pressure from growing population and increasing water demand. In my talk, I will introduce a Forecast-based Adaptive Reservoir Operation (namely FARO) framework, to evaluate the potential value of long-term monthly forecasts in improving real‐time operations of High Aswan Dam (HAD).

Learning Objectives

1. Recognize the challenges in transboundary basins, with focus on the case of the Nile River Basin.
2. Identify the potential forecast value of long-term streamflow forecasts in adaptive reservoir operation.
3. Demonstrate the application of Forecast-based Adaptive Reservoir Operation (FARO) framework to a real-time case in the transboundary Nile River Basin.

Speaker

Dr. Hisham Eldardiry
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Hisham is a postdoctoral research associate at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Hisham earned his PhD degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Washington, Seattle in 2021. Hisham has a Master of Science degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette and a Bachelor of Science degree in Civil Engineering from Alexandria University (Egypt). The primary focus of Hisham’s research is geared towards finding sustainable solutions to the challenges facing the security of energy and water systems in transboundary basins. Hisham is highly interested in the future of the Nile river basin following the hydropower development by upstream nations, in particular the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The outcomes of Hisham’s research will potentially pave the way for sound cooperative agreements that can inspire a win-win deal and consider the equitable rights of development in the Nile countries.

PART 4: National Applications and Transferability

ORIGINALLY AIRED FEBRUARY 17, 2021 | 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 - 11:00 AM PT

Description

Fourth in a series of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) webinars, this webinar will focus on taking the lessons learned by applying FIRO at the initial pilot reservoir, Lake Mendocino, and transferring them to other locations. The process and rationale used to select other pilots will be shared along with the current status and findings to date. FIRO transferability lessons will inform the development of a Screening Level Assessment Tool to allow the quantification of the myriad requirements for FIRO success, and allow portfolios of reservoirs to be categorized by suitability for implementation.

Learning Objectives

1. Identify criteria USACE used in selecting additional FIRO pilot sites.
2. Compare FIRO pilot application lessons learned.
3. Describe purpose and uses of the Screening Level Assessment Tool.

Speakers

Cary Talbot
Chief, Flood & Storm Protection Division
US Army Engineer Research & Development Center

Dr. Cary Talbot is Chief of the Flood & Storm Protection Division in the Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL), US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) where he has worked since 1994. As Division Chief, he supervises the execution of research and development activities of over 100 scientists, engineers and technicians in a wide range of coastal, hydraulic, hydrologic, estuarine and riverine engineering, data collection and analysis applications. He is also the Program Manager of the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Program, a reservoir-operations strategy that uses enhanced monitoring and improved weather and water forecasts to inform decision making to selectively retain or release water from reservoirs to improve specifically targeted benefits. Dr. Talbot earned B.S. and M.S. degrees in Civil & Environmental Engineering from Brigham Young University in 1993 and 1994, respectively. He earned a PhD in Environmental Engineering from the University of Connecticut in 2008.

Elissa Yeates
Research Civil Engineer
US Army Engineer Research & Development Center

Elissa Yeates joined the Hydrologic Systems Branch as a research engineer in February of 2016. She supports a wide range of projects, including continental-scale streamflow forecasting, Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations, quantification of social effects for flood risk management, and forecasting dredging requirements for navigation. Elissa earned her Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin in 2015. Prior to enrolling in the Cockrell School of Engineering, Elissa evaluated public education programs for Gibson Consulting Group in Austin, Texas. She received her Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Humanities from the University of Texas at Austin in 2009. She is currently completing a Master’s degree in Civil Engineering from Mississippi State University.

PART 3: Engineering Aspects of a FIRO Program

ORIGINALLY AIRED JANUARY 20, 2021 | 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 - 11:00 AM PT

Description

Part 3 of the webinar series on Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations. This part will cover policy and application from a USACE District perspective, the evaluation of FIRO Water Control Plans, and USACE operations experience with FIRO-based planned major deviations.

Learning Objectives

1. The role of USACE in Water Management, with focus on West Coast including authority and policy and exploring where FIRO fits.
2. A process for evaluating Water Control Plan alternatives and comparing them with baseline operations.
3. Experience with FIRO-based planned major deviations for Lake Mendocino that recognize the forecast skill time specific to the Russian River basin, recognize the operational constraints of Coyote Valley Dam, and in collaboration with multiple disciplines (operations and environmental) and resource agencies (local, state, and federal).

Speakers

Joe Forbis
Chief, Water Management Section
USACE, Sacramento District

Rob Hartman
Hydrologist
RKH Consulting Services

Patrick Sing
Hydraulic Engineer, Lead Water Manager
USACE, San Francisco District

PART 2: Science Aspects of a FIRO Program

ORIGINALLY AIRED NOVEMBER 18, 2020 | 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 - 11:00 AM PT

Description

The Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) program is founded in science. A successful program requires a thorough observation network that includes on-the-ground gauging, event based atmospheric monitoring and remote sensing. These observations provide an accurate picture of current conditions to provide validation data for forecast models and to enable physical process studies that lead to improved parameterizations and more accurate forecasts from the numerical models that predict atmospheric conditions and hydrology. A decision support system must leverage the skill and uncertainty of the forecasts to make management decisions that meet multiple objectives. Coordination of these components requires a multi-disciplinary team of atmospheric scientists, hydrologists and engineers. This webinar provides an overview of the science of the FIRO program from observations to decision support.

Learning Objectives

1. Identify the essential components of a FIRO project in a reservoir.
2. Recognize the different forecast requirements for FIRO reservoirs with different characteristics.
3. Identify the role of observational campaigns in FIRO projects.

Speakers

Anna Wilson
Field Research Manager
CW3E/ Scripps/ UCSD


Dr. Anna Wilson is the Field Research Manager with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. She has been with the Center since earning her PhD in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Duke University in 2016. Her work involves the integration of observations and modeling to research atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation events in the west, particularly for water resource management applications such as FIRO. Her responsibilities include overseeing ground-based field programs in California and coordinating airborne field campaigns over the northeast Pacific.

Forest Cannon
Atmospheric Scientist
CW3E/ Scripps/ UCSD

Dr. Forest Cannon is an atmospheric scientist in the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. His research focuses on reducing uncertainty in forecasts of atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Western United States. Forest's work leverages field campaign and remotely sensed observations alongside numerical weather prediction to understand current forecast system limitations and potential areas of improvement.

Chris Delaney
Sonoma Water
Senior Engineer

Chris Delaney has been a water resources engineer at Sonoma Water for over 15 years, where he specializes in water resources planning and numerical modeling. Over the years Chris has provided support to numerous high-profile projects throughout Sonoma County including the modeling of complex hydrologic and hydraulic systems, evaluation of impacts for sensitive fish species, and the development flood control and water supply decision support systems. Most recently Chris has teamed up with Scripps Institute of Oceanography to provide technical support on the simulation of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations for reservoirs in California.

PART 1: Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO): Overview and Introduction to FIRO Webinar Series

ORIGINALLY AIRED OCTOBER 14, 2020 | 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET / 10:00 - 11:00 AM PT

Description

The goals, strategies and status of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) will be summarized, including major efforts at several reservoirs ranging from 0.1 to 4.0 million acre-feet storage. These projects cover a range of conditions, from rural to urban, coastal to inland, snow-dominated to rain only. Priorities range from increasing water supply reliability to enhancing flood mitigation and addressing ecosystem issues. All with an eye toward informing potential updates to water control manuals. FIRO has garnered support from water managers and policy makers. It has mitigated risks to water supply reliability during an extremely dry year and enhances flexibility in operating reservoirs based on skill in weather prediction, especially of atmospheric rivers, which are key to flooding and water supply in much of the west. Its success rests upon the development of a research and operations partnership that brings disparate parties and experts together to collaboratively assess potential FIRO viability.

Learning Objectives

1. Identify the key strategies used in the development of FIRO viability assessments.
2. Describe how the formation of a research and operations partnership creates a framework for collaborative vision and work plan development and fosters effective problem solving.
3. Recognize the range of conditions and goals being addressed by the current and planned FIRO viability assessments.

Speakers

F. Martin (Marty) Ralph
Director, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
UC San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Dr. F. Martin Ralph is a weather and water scientist focused on understanding the origins of floods and droughts, and on improving predictions for water management and flood control applications. After 21 years at NOAA, he created the “Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes” at UC San Diego. He’s published over 150 peer-reviewed scientific articles and has developed programs on new science and technology and their application to solving practical problems. He is a leading expert on atmospheric rivers and provides input to policy makers on western weather and water extremes. He is a leader in development of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), working closely with federal, state and local water managers. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and has received awards from several organizations. He has a B. S. in Meteorology from University of Arizona, and a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from UCLA.

Jay Jasperse
Chief Engineer
Sonoma Water

Mr. Jasperse is the Chief Engineer and Director of Groundwater Management for the Sonoma County Water Agency. Mr. Jasperse received a Bachelor of Science degree in Geology from the University of California at Davis and a Master’s degree in Civil Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley. He is a Registered Professional Engineer in the State of California. Prior to joining the Water Agency, he worked as an environmental engineering consultant specializing in groundwater resource characterization and remediation. He is responsible for the Water Agency’s capital projects program and water resource planning and management activities. Mr. Jasperse also serves as Plan Manager for three Groundwater Sustainability Agencies. He is an author of published articles and book chapters on topics such as surface water-groundwater interactions, natural filtration processes, riverbank filtration, and integrated water resource management.

Cary Talbot
Chief, Flood and Storm Protection Division/Coastal Hydraulics Laboratory
US Army Corps of Engineers/ Engineer Research & Development Center

Dr. Cary Talbot is Chief of the Flood & Storm Protection Division in the Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL), US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) where he supervises the execution of research and development activities of over 100 scientists, engineers and technicians in a wide range of coastal, hydraulic, hydrologic, estuarine and riverine engineering, data collection and analysis applications. He is also the Program Manager of the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) effort for the US Army Corps of Engineers. He has B.S. and M.S. degrees in Civil & Environmental Engineering from Brigham Young University and a PhD in Environmental Engineering from the University of Connecticut. He is a Registered Professional Engineer in the State of Mississippi.

Webinar Recording & PDH Certificate

Included with your webinar registration is access to a recording of the webinar and a fillable certificate to self-report your Professional Development Hour (PDH) credit. The recording, your certificate, and any available slides will be emailed to you in the days following the webinar. Access to the webinar recording will be available on AWRA’s Webinar Center and in the email you will receive from [email protected].