Session 1 | Monday, November 8 | 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM EST

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ATTN OFFICIAL JUDGES FOR THE STUDENT PRESENTATION COMPETITION: If you were contacted by the Conference Planning Committee Student Activities Chair, Allison Lewis, remember to use the appropriate evaluation form when scoring student participants. The link and QR code to this form was emailed to you along with your student assignments. To make identifying student participants easier, the green graduation cap  next to a session title includes a student who is participating in the PRESENTATION Competition.  

Training the Next Generation of Facilitators – Interactive Seminar

Moderator: Lara Fowler

Presenters: Lara Fowler, Penn State University and Mark Masters, Director, Georgia Water Planning & Policy Center – Albany State University

Addressing issues with water management by its very nature is a complex task, one aided by effective facilitation and sometimes more formal mediation. How to become a water facilitator or mediator is a path people often stumble onto versus deliberately seek. Creating a pool (pun intended) of people with good facilitation and mediation skills with a focus on water may be critical as climate change is rapidly evidencing itself as water change. This session will briefly explore existing mechanisms and what could be done to develop more routes into this world. Specifically, we will hear from experts in the field of water mediation and facilitation but also, importantly, from stakeholders with regard to the qualities, training and skillset needed to reach agreement on challenging water issues. This 90-minute seminar-style session will feature instruction-based, intensive discussion and interaction with designed activities, demonstrating and encouraging the practice of actual methods, spurring participants to investigate further on their own. This is both a mentorship opportunity for younger professionals and advanced students, and an interactive conversation among experienced mediators regarding the future of the profession. Sign up in advance to ensure yourself a seat!

Applications in Environmental Flow Management

Moderators: Ge Sun & John Balay

Presenters:

• John Balay, Susquehanna River Basin Commission, "Environmental Flow Initiatives in the Susquehanna River Basin"
Environmental flows remain a highly important and continually evolving issue in contemporary water resources management. The Susquehanna River Basin Commission has a long history of conducting ecological flow studies and implementing policies and projects tailored to improve environmental flow management in the Susquehanna River and its tributaries. This presentation will provide an overview of Ecosystem Flow Recommendations for the Susquehanna River Basin developed by the Nature Conservancy and numerous agency partners. This study laid the groundwork for the Commission’s Low Flow Protection Policy, which outlines the factors and process for making passby flow and conservation release determinations related to water withdrawal permits. The presentation will also cover environmental flow initiatives at federal, state, and private owned reservoirs used for flood control, water supply, hydropower, recreation, and other purposes. Lastly, the Commission’s Consumptive Use Mitigation Policy will be reviewed with a focus on implementing mitigation projects that have a direct connection to environmental flow management and increased drought resiliency.


• Zhenxing Zhang, Guangping Qie, Elias Getahun, and Emily Allen Mamer, Illinois State Water Survey, "Simulating Outflow with Machine Learning for Two Reservoirs in Illinois"
Lake Shebyville and Carlyle Lake are the two federal-owned multipurpose reservoirs located in the Kaskaskia River watershed, one of the mostly regulated rivers in Illinois. These two lakes play critical role in water supply and low flow management among other purposes. Thus, it is important to forecast the reservoir outflow for better water resources management and water supply planning. We applied three Machine Learning algorithms (ML), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to simulate the outflow at these two reservoirs and compared the performances. The input include past, current, and future hydrologic and meteorological data information were. The simulation results showed that all three models can reasonably simulate reservoir outflow. For Carlyle Lake, the SVM performed better than the RF and ANN, but the SVM output larger relative mean bias than the RF and ANN. For Lake Shelbyville, the ANN model performed better than RF and SVM.


• Ge Sun, Ning Liu, Johnny Boggs, Steven G. McNulty, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, "Effects of Forest Removal on Monthly Water Balances in North Carolina Piedmont Watersheds"
The hydrologic impacts of cutting forests in silviculture or permanently converting forest lands for urban uses vary tremendously in space and time. We hypothesize that clearcuts have the most pronounced hydrologic effects during the growing season (May-October) when the contrast of evapotranspiration between the forested and the disturbed watershed is the highest. This study was conducted in the in the piedmont geophysical regions in central North Carolina using a traditional ‘paired watershed’ approach to examine treatment effects on streamflow by clearcutting one watershed and keeping one as the control. The calibration period was from 2008 to 2010 and the treatment period from 2011-2013 with forest cutting implemented in the autumn of 2010 in both paired watersheds with different geology and soils. We developed calibration models at both daily and monthly scales to detect hydrological change due to clearcut treatments. A monthly water balance model, Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI), was also parameterized using local weather, soil, vegetation, and leaf area dynamics to simulate clearcut effects on water yield, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture dynamics. Modeling results on water yield responses were compared with measurements to identify model deficiency. Experimental data detected a significant flow increase (i.e., 100-200 mm per year or >200% of flow compared to the no harvest control watershed) from 2011-2013. We found that the magnitudes of flow increases were not highest in the summer but greatly varied inter- and intra- annually depending on precipitation, vegetation, and soil water conditions. This study suggests that forest removals associated with land-use change (e.g., urbanization) or harvest have an immediate impact (1-3 years) on both high and low flows. Stormflow management in urban settings could maximize ET and thus minimize storm flow by retaining forest covers while reducing impervious areas.


• John Zhu, Texas Water Development Board, "Influence of Model Assumptions on the Attainment of Freshwater Inflow Targets: a Study on Galveston Bay Using a Daily Water Allocation Model"
Freshwater inflow from rivers is a primary factor affecting the ecological health and productivity of bays and estuaries because it plays an important role in maintaining salinity gradients, nutrient loadings, and sediment inputs. The Trinity River, the third largest river in Texas by average annual flow rate, plays a crucial role in the health and productivity of Galveston Bay, which is the largest bay in Texas. Texas has a long history of evaluating freshwater inflow needs for Galveston Bay. First, through a coordinated program among state natural resource agencies, freshwater inflow targets were developed in 2001 for Galveston Bay. Second, the environmental flows process created by Senate Bill 3 (80th Texas Legislature, 2007) resulted in the adoption in 2011 of annual and seasonal freshwater inflow standards from the Trinity River to Galveston Bay. We examine the attainment of these recommended freshwater inflow targets and adopted standards using six metrics, i.e., attainment frequency, attainment volume reliability, average shortage, average percent of shortage, average percent of shortage for entire period, and zero-flow day, that have been disaggregated evenly into daily targets. The analysis relied on using a water availability (allocation) model (WAM) for the Trinity River basin, at a daily time-step and adhering to the prior appropriation doctrine (first in time, first in right). Simulations are implemented under four scenarios: (1) observed flow scenario, obtained mainly from gauged flow; (2) naturalized flow scenario, constructed from observed flow by removing any human influences; (3) a current use scenario, which applies the maximum water diversion of the past 10 years, average return flow, and recent reservoir capacity; and (4) an authorized use scenario, which applies full permitted diversions without return flows and with original reservoir capacity. Simulated flow derived from these scenarios are examined by the attainment metrics on annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily basis. We provide a comparative assessment of how the attainment of freshwater inflow targets and the adopted inflow standards vary based on the flow scenario adopted with the aim of highlighting the influence of model assumptions on attainment statistics.

Impacts of Human Behavior and Education on Utilization of Water Resources

Moderator: Cat Shrier

Presenters: 

• Cat Shrier, WaterCitizen Foundation, "The Virtual Water Engagement Lab: A User-Centered Approach to High-Engagement, Results-Driven Virtual Water Programs for Stakeholders, Policyleaders, Clients and Communities"
WaterCitizen was created to support Water Leaders and Innovators in the development of high-engagement online educational media, programs and events to expand opportunities for participation in water sustainability, particularly for planning, policy, stakeholder and targeted community engagement. Before the pandemic, water-related organizations resisted virtual meetings and events, preferring to meet in-person with funds available to spend on travel and venue costs for hosts and some (but not all) attendees. With the start of the lockdown, WaterCitizen began monitoring the transition of water-related events and other activities to virtual formats, interviewing association leaders in our #WaterGoesVirtual interview series, and then conducting formal research interviews in Fall 2020 and again in Spring 2021 - a total of more than 200 interviews. Initially, water organizations focused on platforms and pre-recorded webinars, but there was increasing recognition of the need not just to share information, but to provide greater opportunities for engagement and community building. WaterCitizen's Virtual Water Education Lab (VWELAB) was created to empower Water Leaders to create, validate, and launch their own virtual water education programs, using a user-centered, high-engagement, results-driven approach that draws upon successful models used in the rapidly growing online coaching industry such as Iman Aghay's Ultimate Course Formula, Jeff Walker's Product Launch Formula, Marisa Murgatroyd's Experience Product Masterclass, and Lucrative Luminary's Education-Based Marketing. VWELAB's first two Cohorts has included CEOs of environmental consulting firms, directors of water institutes, founders of nonprofits, and program heads from organizations such as the US Bureau of Reclamation, North Texas Municipal Water District, Ducks Unlimited, and the Local Government Commission. Programs developed in the Virtual Water Engagement Lab have addressed such topics as drought plan implementation, water rights marketing for habitat, climate resiliency ambassadors, water asset management, locally sustainable WASH projects, sustainable gardening and residential reuse. This paper presents: results of the State of Virtual Water Education Research Surveys; an introduction to VWELAB's methodologies; and case studies from VWELAB graduates. These Virtual Water Education, Engagement, and Enrollment skills will become critical for the Water Leader of the Future - and our VWELAB methods make them available today.


• Ava Saunders , Haylie Fine, Teresa E. Thornton, "Demographics Effect on Willingness to Pay v. Accept Pertaining to Surface Waters in Wealthy Coastal Communities of Southeast Florida"
Understanding the impact of demographics on volunteer motivations is essential to driving community-wide projects, especially those dealing with human health and water quality. A private gated community in Southeast Florida, Jonathan’s Landing (JL), has an integrated golf course (15,000 sqft) and marina containing 31 shared associations and approximately 1,234 homes on or near the water (JL POA, 2021). Although membership in the community golf facilities is not required, it is estimated that there is a high interest in participation (pers. com. S. Matteson, POA GM, 5.26.21). JL waterfront was developed by exposing the water table on or near the intracoastal. The water system contains flood gates, some of which are damaged. Additionally residential waters are affected by water traps on the golf course that have culverts spilling directly into waterways, residential lakefront lawn care that is year round, and manicured facilities lacking a riparian buffer. Residents became concerned as they noticed changes in their ornamental gardens, the loss of butterflies, increased algal blooms, littoral invasions, and invasive grasses. At this point they contacted JERFSA (Jupiter Environmental Research and Field Studies Academy) and requested assistance in increasing resident involvement. To assist in the distribution of information and to increase environmental networking within JL, JERFSA students constructed and distributed a survey regarding willingness to participate in volunteer activities. The survey was modified from the Green Mountain Conservation District (2021) and Ossipee Lake Alliance (2020) and was distributed by the Property Owners Association via email and monthly newsletter. The survey was constructed through Survey Monkey and although the survey did request demographics, it was anonymous and voluntary. Questions inquired about land use, connection to the golf club, financial and educational status, and overall understanding of the natural environment. The survey was distributed to every homeowner in the community. Of this, 68% of recipients responded. According to the Norm-Activation Model (Onwezen, Antonides, Bartels 2013), which demonstrates pro-environmental behaviors will be enhanced by elevated levels of education, demographics of the JL population indicate that they have a higher willingness to pay than accept.


• Josh Weiss, Hazen and Sawyer, "Linkages in Receiving Water Quality: Understanding Stakeholder Perspectives and Research Needs"
To identify and prioritize research needs in the area of linkages among point and non-point effluents, receiving water quality, and ecosystem outcomes, the Water Research Foundation initiated a project to characterize the state of knowledge from a range of stakeholder perspectives (WRF Project 5038). An expert survey and series of virtual focus groups brought together diverse groups of stakeholders that included water and wastewater utility staff, academicians, researchers, practitioners, land managers, and the regulatory community. The focus group workshops were designed to explore the boundaries of current scientific and policy thought; to collectively define the problem space and explore out of the box, innovative solutions. Critical to success was the inclusion of a diverse range of stakeholders, including representatives from the consulting, academic, regulatory, agriculture, and industrial worlds. The virtual focus groups provided a safe forum for discussing topics that often become adversarial. The Water Use and Implementation Focus Group was made up of “end use” water entities and focused on the role of stakeholders at the downstream end of the watershed. The Data and Modeling focus group concentrated on data availability and applications of modeling in regulation and management of pollutants. The Policy and Regulation Focus Group represented the segments of the industry charged with developing and implementing rules and regulations. Finally, the Land Management Focus Group addressed the role of the agricultural community, land managers, and producers, in management of non-point sources of pollution. The group included six farmers from Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, all involved in ongoing watershed management and soil conservation practices. Across the board, focus group participants agreed that more data collection is needed. A consistent theme of discussions was the need for post-implementation, follow-up studies to confirm or revise mitigation and regulatory actions. Participants across all the focus groups further emphasized the lack sufficient monitoring data and case studies to understand how site-specific conditions hinder the use of alternative policy and mitigation approaches. In this presentation, the authors will describe the results of the survey and focus group discussions and their relevance to regulatory and engineering solutions for improving water quality and ecological outcomes.


• Sharon Megdal, University of Arizona, "Science Diplomacy and Dialogue to Address Wicked Water Problems"
The presentation explores how cross-border and international collaborative scientific efforts are establishing and contributing to processes and dialogues that address wicked water problems.* Building upon experiences from the Middle East, the U.S.-Mexico border, and Tribal Nations of the Colorado River Basin, along with other efforts that span national borders, the presenter discusses advances being made through conducting transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and dialogues. The presentation draws upon collaborative research experiences as well as recent international and numerous regional conferences and conversations. The presenter provides insights regarding the importance of establishing and maintaining respectful relationships that are required for long-term efforts to tackle wicked water problems. *Suggested reading: January 2021 issue of AWRA’s Water Resources IMPACT in Wicked Water Problems.

Coastal Considerations of Climate Change

Moderator: Xixi Wang

Presenters:

• Jeff Hiscock, Baxter & Woodman, Inc., "A Holistic Approach to Sea Level Rise"
Lake Shore Drive in Lake Park, Florida has suffered severe flooding due to king tides and storm surges, becoming worse with each year. The Town of Lake Park has set goals to abate the effects of sea level rise, improve water quality, replace the aging infrastructure and enhance the aesthetics of the roadway corridor to support the existing residents and attract new re-development. This project is all about “Sustainability” and is the cornerstone of the Town’s “Vision Lake Park” initiative. This presentation will cover the challenges associated with Sea Level Rise in older established urban settings including how to increase flood protection without exceeding the allowable discharge criteria, finding water quality opportunities in flood prone areas, permitting of a new outfall into an impaired estuary and securing funding through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. An out-of-the-box holistic approach was taken to achieve the Town’s goals by designing a system that works within the constraints of a low-lying closed basin. The system takes advantage of a pump station to not only increase flood protection, but to also provide water quality by lifting the water up to a higher area that will serve as both dry detention and as a bioswale. Stormwater design scenarios with Sea Level Rise predictions, hydrologic & hydraulic modeling, permitting with SFWMD and USACOE, and grant funding will be discussed. The project is currently under construction and scheduled for completion in January 2022. It is anticipated that the bioswale (to be located in the Town’s adjacent park) will serve as educational opportunity for school field trips and as a tangible environmental feature illustrating one community’s response to Sea Level Rise.


• Valerie Seidel, The Balmoral Group, "Coastal and Climate Resiliency Economics"
Coastal and Climate Resiliency has gained attention exponentially in the last few years, but much of the focus has been on maintaining existing systems and structures-how to engineer higher roads and infrastructure, pump more water away from valuable properties and critical assets, or use ""Green infrastructure"" to mitigate wave energy, for example. Less attention has been paid to socioeconomic costs and benefits of various approaches, and the long term social, fiscal, and cultural aspects. For examples, how is climate migration affecting historically low-income neighborhoods as coastal residents seek historically less expensive, higher ground inland? And how are benefits that accrue to higher-income households equitably compared to lower-income households when property values drive so many policy decisions? A through analysis incorporates the public's willingness to pay for environmental and other non-market assets, parity, and intergenerational considerations. In this session, we discuss several examples of completed projects for clients interested in comprehensive understanding of the issues at hand including: capital costs as well as operating and maintenance and indirect cost impacts; distributional analysis of impacts on different social or demographic cohorts (integrational, income strata, vulnerable communities); natural resource impacts; forecast impacts on business revenues and industry employment; opportunity costs; and time value of money. Using analysis conducted in diverse communities (affluent vs. rural Atlantic counties, Gulf of Mexico coast and three Australian coastal cities), we demonstrate the breadth of issues facing policymakers and residents. The priorities of each community are reflected in the varied scope of services and conclusions, and we provide principles that arise from this body of work. Key findings to be discussed include:
1. Contributions of many disciplines (economists, engineers, scientists) ensure sound assumptions about feasible alternatives, long-term implications, and fiscal impacts. The presentation will describe how different disciplines refine and improve decision-making.
2. Transparency is critical, and innovative methods for sharing data, decision rules and uncertainties are invaluable to gaining public trust and policymaker consensus.
3. Renewed sensitivity to social equity and environmental justice requires straight forward, direct methods to highlight and address gaps and opportunities in funding, prioritization, and consideration of alternatives.


• Marcy Frick, Tetra Tech, Inc., "Strategic Policy Plan for Florida Oceans and Coasts"
Tetra Tech worked as part of a team with the Florida Ocean Alliance (FOA) to prepare the Strategic Policy Plan for Florida's Oceans and Coasts. FOA recognized the need to prevent and mitigate damage to Florida's ocean and coastal resources and advance the state’s economy. FOA requested funding from the Florida Legislature to develop the Strategic Policy Plan, and the funds were appropriated in July 2019. FOA identified numerous existing issues related to ocean and coastal resilience that needed to be addressed including declining water quality, damaged natural habitats, climate change impacts, aging infrastructure, silos in management, and lack of data and information access. To address these needs, the Strategic Policy Plan focuses on four key issues: Blue Economy; ocean and coastal resilience; human and natural infrastructure; and implementation, outreach, and financing. The Strategic Policy Plan includes strategies and actions for each issue that will help protect, restore, and grow Florida's ocean and coastal resources, which are the backbone of the state's Blue Economy. The Strategic Policy Plan requires that state agencies, local governments, non-governmental organizations, industry, universities and research institutions, and the general public work together in support of Florida's ocean and coastal resources. As part of Strategic Policy Plan development, FOA conducted an economic analysis, which found that Florida’s coastal counties generated 77% of the state’s more than $1 trillion economy. The analysis highlighted the magnitude and importance of Florida's Blue Economy and the need to implement the measures in the Strategic Policy Plan to ensure its resiliency. This was made more apparent by the COVID-19 pandemic that began affecting Florida in March 2020 during development of the Strategic Policy Plan. The presentation will focus on the results of the economic analysis, major ocean and coastal issues identified during the Strategic Policy Plan preparation, stakeholder engagement, and high-priority strategies and actions that can be implemented in the near-term to allow for improved resilience and economic expansion of Florida's Ocean and Coastal resources.


• Valerie Seidel, Courtney Cortez, The Balmoral Group, "Economic Impacts of Water Quality Issues in the Gulf of Mexico"
Massive harmful algal blooms have annually plagued the Gulf of Mexico with water quality issues that cause widespread mortality of fish and marine mammals, health impacts to humans, and negatively impact working waterfront industries such as hospitality and commercial fisheries. This Gulf of Mexico Alliance, Gulf Star project identifies linkages between healthy water resources and the Gulf economies for the State of Florida using publicly available economic, scientific, and digital media data that enables replication and transferability to other states. A novel development in the project was the use of digital media analytics data to develop linkages with the scientific and economic data. The correlation analyses between these found that there were strong correlations between the media data and the economic data which was then used to estimate the economic impact time periods. The results provide resource managers and their state and federal partners the quantification of economic implications for harmful algal blooms and their avoidance to assess restoration investments or management actions. The study finds that the 2017-2019 red tide event in Florida resulted in revenue losses of nearly $1 billion across tourism, fishing, marine industries, and property values in addition to tax revenue declines of $178 million across Florida’s Gulf Coast counties. Additionally, the value of 152 marine mammals stranded by the red tide event was estimated at $198 million using published willingness-to-pay values. The results are presented in an online dashboard that allows users to assess the economic impacts across time and geography.

Identifying and Tracking Water Quality Pollutants

Moderator: Bangshuai Han

Presenters:

• Kimia Karimi , North Carolina State University, "Contrasting Annual Versus Summer Phosphorus Loading and Retention Rates Using a Hybrid Bayesian Watershed Model"
Excessive nutrient release and subsequent eutrophication problems degrade water quality worldwide. Addressing this issue calls for characterizing nutrient sources and retention rates, especially in summer when water quality problems are often most severe. Hybrid (empirical-mechanistic) watershed models have been used to quantify nutrient loading from various source categories. However, these models are generally developed for long-term average conditions, limiting their ability to assess temporal drivers of nutrient loading. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to incorporate these drivers (e.g., varying source distributions and precipitation) to model total phosphorus (TP) on both an annual and summer basis. The Bayesian framework allows us to include prior knowledge about parameters that control nutrient loading and transport, which helps inform our model and reduces uncertainty in nutrient loading estimates. We model the Jordan and Falls Lakes basins of the North Carolina Piedmont over a multi-decadal period (1982-2017). Model results indicate that urban lands built before 1980 are the largest exporter of TP (per unit area). At the same time, except for the pre-1980 urban lands, summer export rates are lower than annual-average export rates. Also, precipitation has a substantially larger influence on nutrient export from agricultural lands, especially in summer. Finally, the models indicate that nutrient retention is more than two times higher in summer, primarily due to higher retention in streams.


• Michael Kratz, Florida Gulf Coast University, "Microbial Source Tracking and Bacterioplankton Community Composition Along Three Impaired Subtropical Waterways"
Microbial indicator species are a universal water management tool for detecting anthropogenic contamination and pollution into waterways. Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) in particular have been in use since the 1950s and are a valuable parameter for evaluating waterway pathogen loading. Onsite Sewage Treatment and Disposal Systems (OSTDs) are used by 30% of Florida’s population and have been shown to be a source of FIB into waterways when they are not properly installed/maintained or when they are below the water table during the wet season. Southwest Florida’s population has been increasing rapidly which has led to high-density clusters of communities in previously isolated areas using OSTDs, rather than being switched to centralized sewage collection. Impaired water quality (FIB exceeding regulatory standards) in several of the small tributaries in densely populated parts of the Estero Bay watershed may be related to OSTD clustering or other urban sources. Water quality degradation can impact bacterioplankton communities, which play key roles in biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. This research seeks to determine whether OSTDs are a major source of nutrient and FIB loading into these tributaries, which tributaries are being impacted most, and how bacterioplankton communities could be changing from this contamination. Our study took place from August 2019 to August 2020 along the Estero River, Imperial River, and Spring Creek. We measured concentration of FIB (enterococci and Escherichia coli), nutrients, sucralose, and stable isotopes; along with physiochemical parameters (temperature, dissolved oxygen, etc.) and microbial community sequencing from surface water and groundwater samples. The dominant phyla along the Estero and Imperial Rivers were Proteobacteria (Betaproteobacteria), Bacteroidetes (Flavobacteriia), Actinobaceria, and Cyanobacteria. Spring Creek surface water samples bacterioplankton communities were dominated by Gammaproteobacteria (18% overall abundance between samples), which was more similar in community composition to groundwater samples than other surface water samples. This may mean Spring Creek is heavily influenced by groundwater discharge, which could increase its susceptibility to microbial hazards if contamination is persistent.


• Kelly Dino, Florida Gulf Coast University, "Fecal Indicator Bacteria Variability and Source Investigation in Three Tidal Streams in Southwest Florida"
In the U.S., surface water is subject to regulatory limits for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) including E. coli and Enterococcus, which serve as indicators of possible contamination with human wastes and the negative health effects that can accompany it. Research at FGCU has investigated spatial and temporal variation of FIB in three known-contaminated, tidal streams in coastal Lee County, southwest Florida, with the ultimate objective of identifying and characterizing source locations and activities in the watersheds so that management agencies might reduce those sources. FIB abundance was found to vary by orders of magnitude – from well within regulatory standards to well in excess – on some occasions within days and within tenths of kilometers; consistent with research from elsewhere in the U.S. The research to date has not identified locations, seasons, or meteorological conditions where abundance was consistently high that would indicate source locations or conditions. Historical data demonstrates that frequency of regulatory exceedences increases toward the river mouth, as it flows through developed land uses, supporting the general hypothesis that human land uses and/or activities contribute to sources in some way. One of three studied streams was documented to host bacterial species prominent in groundwater, along with high concentrations of the chemical tracer sucralose, providing weight of evidence of human fecal sources, likely transported through groundwater. Conversely, limited sampling of groundwater at another location did not find elevated FIB abundance in the surficial groundwater itself, but did identify high abundance in several small drainage swales designed as stormwater conveyances, which proved to carry small flows year-round, suggesting short-circuiting of soils from septic systems or a known package wastewater treatment plant may be important in carrying FIB to receiving waters through small surface flows rather than groundwater flows. Questions for future research include: further investigations of groundwater in zones where septic systems are known to be present to detect hypothesized flows either through groundwater or small drainage channels; and potential effects on measured FIB of resuspension by tidal action of sediments deposited near river mouths, believed to be a substantial reservoir of FIB in tropical environments such as southwest Florida.


• James McNair, Robert B. Annis Water Resources Institute, "A Decision-theoretic Framework for Assessing the Relationship Between Culture-based and qPCR-based Recreational Water-quality Criteria for Fecal Indicator Bacteria"
State recreational water-quality standards for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) typically are based on culture methods. These methods require incubation for 18 to 24 hours, implying that test results cannot be used to determine whether beach advisories should be issued until the day following sample collection. This delay is problematic, because FIB levels at beaches often change markedly in 24 hours. qPCR-based methods, by contrast, can quantify FIB in only 3 to 4 hours and therefore can support same-day beach-advisory decisions. For this reason, some states are developing optional qPCR-based recreational water-quality criteria for FIB. In freshwater beaches, these criteria often are based on Escherichia coli (E. coli) levels. E. coli testing with qPCR quantifies the number of copies of a target DNA sequence in a sample, including intact DNA from both live and dead cells, as well as DNA fragments. Consequently, qPCR data can reflect older contamination events and may be subject to site specific conditions that influence mixing. No epidemiological studies have yet been conducted to determine the relationship between qPCR-based estimates of E. coli concentration in recreational waters and corresponding effects of exposure on human health, so the degree to which provisional qPCR-based E. coli criteria are protective of human health must be gauged indirectly by assessing their ability to predict the outcomes of culture-based decisions. We discuss a robust decision-theoretic framework that permits such assessments with minimal assumptions about data properties. The only requirement for implementing the framework is a representative data set comprising paired culture-based and qPCR-based estimates of E. coli concentrations from split samples. We present and discuss results of implementing the proposed framework on a large data set for freshwater beaches in Michigan.